Villain is a TAG but likes to steal the blinds in LP. The table is breaking up; i.e. everyone is leaving, and play has gotten a bit looser. I've played with him several times. He is capable of making a move. I look down and find the pocket rockets (AA).
UTG is at seat 1 with $52.45. Villain is at seat 3 with $60.55. MP is at seat 5 with $51.70. BTN is at seat 6 with $43.15. SB is at seat 7 with $80.70. Hero is at seat 9 with $49.05. The button is at seat 6.
SB posts the small blind of $.25. Hero posts the big blind of $.50.
Pre-flop:
UTG calls. Villain raises to $2.50. MP folds. BTN folds. SB folds. Hero re-raises to $8. UTG folds. Villain calls.
Flop (board: 8h 7s 3c):
Hero bets $12. Villain goes all-in for $52.55. Hero...
easy call. He's not raising and calling a reraise like that with any of the possible pairs or 78 that hurt you. Possibly the other 2 aces. If he has trips or 2 pair oh well thats poker.
That's pretty much what I thought everyone would say. I think it is basically impossible to lay down aces in this spot. Hero calls and hits an A on the turn to suck out against a set of eights. Unfortunately, I'm the villian in this hand rather than the hero. I'll tell you what I was thinking.
I've played close to a thousand hands with hero and I'm 99% sure he has AA when he makes that reraise. I'm 99% sure that he isn't laying down aces on the flop or ever. His raise makes it $5.50 more to me. Normally I would just fold my 88, but I recently read a post by Ken about implied odds. I thought, "Well, if I hit my set, I'm getting his stack. Odds of me hitting are 7.5 to 1. The pot is currently $11 and I can add another $41 to that in implied odds for a total of $52 minus a couple dollars in rake. 7.5 times $5.50 is $41.25 (actually, I just thought 8 times 5.5 is 44 minus a little, yep I'm good); so I have room to spare here. I call." The flop hit me and everything went as I thought it would except for that fu-king 2 outer.
A check of the oil level in my car and a half hour walk around the neighborhood later it occurred to me that I had neglected to consider the 8.4% possibility that he could resuck out on the turn or river. Of course, I never consider that possibility, so this isn't a mistake I'm going to beat myself up over, but it got me thinking about how I think about odds and that maybe I should include those redraws in my calculations.
Here's what that looks like over 100 hands.
I miss the flop 88 (and change) times losing my 5.50 = 484
I hit 12 (minus small change) times but get redrawn once. In the redraw I lose one of those hits, so ten times I win the $52 in the pot and implied pot = 520. Looks like a winning play to me, too bad this was the one time in the 100 that the poker gods take a huge dump on my play. What do you guys think?
wow. I dont know what to think. Ive never looked at it like that before. To be honest, i dont really understand much of that.
All i can say is that i cant fault ur play at any point in this hand. You had the implied odds with 88 and was able to get all your money in with the best hand. Surely thats right?
