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WINS IN A ROW? MATHS

 

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Bangkoker GB Bangkoker Enthusiast
Posts: 620 		 

Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 05:22 AM. Post 1
mad Ok people, I know we have some very good mathematically minded mindsmad on here.

Something is puzzling me. On another site they do a Jackpot sit n go (if you win 5 in a row you get $57k) on a $5 tourney.

OK, they are a fairly weak game table of 10 people. I am fairly consistantly itm, the thing that is puzzling me is, I only played a few yesterday and managed 3 first places in a row.

My logic tells me that if I have 'streaked' 3 in a row, if I am playing well enough to consistently place ITM, surely a streak of 5 is bound to happen just due to variance?

I am missing something I guess, as the prize in relation to the rake is huge, so it is obviously a fairly rare occurance... any ideas?

Would be really interested to hearhappy
 
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Bangkoker GB Bangkoker Enthusiast
Posts: 620 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:04 AM. Post 2
sad No replies? Anyway I suppose if they are +ev for me as a tournament, then the chance of hitting 5 wins in a row (is just a bonus) and hitting 5 top 2s in a row ( a more likely bonus albeit a lot smaller ).. still interested to hear peoples views on the maths
 
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Jeremy-1986 NZ Jeremy-1986 Senior member
Posts: 1921 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:16 AM. Post 3
definitely +EV for the site, so -EV for a random player. i'm trying to figure out what sort of win rate you'd need to make it +EV for yourself. i've been thinking about it for about quarter of an hour, but it's really complex, so i'm going to do something else then think about it later and get back to you.
 
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Bangkoker GB Bangkoker Enthusiast
Posts: 620 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:24 AM. Post 4
Thanks Jeremy, I realise it is +ev for site (otherwise they wouldn't do it) but I mean I am making a good return on them as an individual so the bonus is kind of an aside but if it is soooo unlikely then I would be better saving the extra rake ( I just can't see it is, if I am consistantly making 1st and having hit 3 in a row on my first day, 5 doesnt seem to extreme).
 
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croywhale GB croywhale Enthusiast
Posts: 2170 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:28 AM. Post 5
hey bangk,

To actually work it out for you, some more info would be necessary (e.g. win %, no. of games played etc. but quite a high volume is prob required to fix a good estimate)

This would allow the standard deviation to be calculated and then the expected number of games needed before the streak of 5 games would be hit.

Notice that is 'expected'. It can never be a 100% certainty, just, for example, 50% likelihood within x number of games. 75% after y number of games etc. You could of course hit it after 5 games wink

I'll pm you your and my STT streak results at ongame for info as this may help happy
 
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Jeremy-1986 NZ Jeremy-1986 Senior member
Posts: 1921 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:33 AM. Post 6
well, 5 is 100 times less likely than 3 in a row, if you're random player and thus winning 1/10.

i think you need to be winning just over 11% of these to make it break even, or roughly 1 out of every 8.9 - but that's just taking into account the money from the rake and the jackpot, but not your usual roi from the regular prizes. it's the regular roi that makes it tricky.
 
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earthwizard GB earthwizard Enthusiast
Posts: 981 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:39 AM. Post 7
this may sound silly but ive got it in my head that if theres a 10 person table then arnt you 10-1 to win it? if this premis is right then arnt you 10*10*10*10*10 or 100,000-1 to win 5 tables in a row? that is of course providing all players are equal in ability.
 
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croywhale GB croywhale Enthusiast
Posts: 2170 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:52 AM. Post 8
nice question bang, enjoying this one.

Yep, earthw you are right. Then assume that you have a roi of 100% which means that you win 2 games out of every 10 (disregarding the rake for now). You have a 1/5 chance of winning and you should hit 1 streak of 5 games every 3125 games.

Now, assuming that your roi is somewhere between +0% and 100% you should hit the streak somewhere between 3125 and 100k games.

Looking at the top 3 players in the SNG high leaderboard, they have played about 50k STT games between them so far this year and have only ONE streak of 5 games between them. They have 10 streaks of 4 games and 63 streaks of 3 games. Granted, they are playing tougher games than $5 STT but probably still a good estimate tbh.
 
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Jeremy-1986 NZ Jeremy-1986 Senior member
Posts: 1921 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 06:55 AM. Post 9
that's correct, earthwizard.

i actually think that for the site these tournaments are less profitable per tournament than regular sngs - that is to say that the extra $0.5 in rake doesn't cover the expected jackpot payout. the value for the site must just come from volume - less profit per sng but the hopes of raising volume enough to increase absolute profits.
 
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croywhale GB croywhale Enthusiast
Posts: 2170 		 

RE: Wins in a row? Maths

Sep 2, 2008 07:00 AM. Post 10
bang, what is the bonus for cashing 5 in a row?
 
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