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$10 DOUBLE DEEP, CALL OR FOLD?

 

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Hels Bels GB Hels Bels Enthusiast
Posts: 2797 		 

$10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 5, 2008 08:19 AM. Post 1
TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T4-77999606-13
played at "Guantanamo" for USD TC from 2008-10-05 08:13 until 2008-10-05 08:14



Seat 1: gschrop ($3,270 in chips) Seat 2: Hels Bels ($3,485 in chips)5h, 2h
Seat 3: svigger ($1,960 in chips) Seat 4: kopaced ($1,410 in chips) Seat 5: LukAceFull ($3,665 in chips) Seat 6: MellowMobi ($2,415 in chips) Seat 7: riboooo1 ($3,770 in chips) Seat 8: olli265 ($3,030 in chips) Seat 9: gtdaveab ($4,875 in chips) Seat 10: slikrick xx ($2,530 in chips) ANTES/BLINDS
kopaced posts small blind ($15), LukAceFull posts big blind ($30).

PRE-FLOP
MellowMobi folds, riboooo1 folds, olli265 folds, gtdaveab folds, slikrick xx calls $30, gschrop calls $30, Hels Bels calls $30, svigger folds, kopaced calls $15, LukAceFull checks.

FLOP [board cards: 8H 4S 3H ]
kopaced bets $1,380 and is all-in, LukAceFull folds, slikrick xx folds, gschrop calls $1,380, Hels Bels
 
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Hels Bels GB Hels Bels Enthusiast
Posts: 2797 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 5, 2008 08:20 AM. Post 2
Forgot to say I know I should have folded pf, but I meant would you call or fold to his flop bet...

Bad call pf lol!
 
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_spiderpig_ GB _spiderpig_ Senior member
Posts: 1298 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 5, 2008 08:23 AM. Post 3
still early on in the game, i'd fold happy
 
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0flushgordon DE 0flushgordon Senior member
Posts: 1390 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 5, 2008 04:48 PM. Post 4
You should have folded preflop wink

I would have folded in this one too.


In the best case, if no one has a flush draw or a set you have 14 outs, giving you about 49% winning chance (you can correct me wink ) if it goes for a showdown.
You get 1,4:1 pot odds (gschrop will probably go allin on the turn) to see the river, so you need about 41% winning chance.
In the best case you get them and it would be a close call but maybe one of them has a flush draw too or a set, then your winning chance decreases much.
If you just want to see the turn card, even in the best case you would make a fault by calling here.

There is probably no fold equity here, so raising allin will not help much.

It's a clear fold imo.
 
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0flushgordon DE 0flushgordon Senior member
Posts: 1390 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 5, 2008 05:07 PM. Post 5
^^^ I have to correct me wink
In the best case you have 15 outs, 9 to a flush and 6 to a straight.
 
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Hels Bels GB Hels Bels Enthusiast
Posts: 2797 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 5, 2008 05:12 PM. Post 6
I did say I know it was a bad call preflop. I like to call a lot of hands when the blinds are very small, but I do know 5 2 is not good.

Anyway, 15 outs, is that not a good chance of winning the hand?

The main reason I folded was, as you said Flush, my logic was I had many outs, but was screwed if someone already had a set, and the board paired up, or a higher flush draw.

Next time I fold hands like that preflop so as not to put myself in those situations.
 
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Bodhidharma4 GB Bodhidharma4 Member
Posts: 557 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 5, 2008 08:25 PM. Post 7
With an open ended straight and a flush draw i'll push every time. I know it's possible someone else is on a flush draw, but odds are it's very unlikely. If you make the flush, i belive it's 56 to 1 for someone else to have one. 15 outs you just under 2 to 3 favourite. They're the odds your looking for to get your money in. By folding, you may last longer. But you're very unlikely to be able to get enough chips to win playing that way imo.
 
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FishX1982 NO FishX1982 Member
Posts: 28 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 7, 2008 09:00 PM. Post 8
I am 100% with Bod on this one. With 15 outs twice, raise and reraise is genereally the thing. And I totally cannot see Flushgordons point about this being a fold since its early in the tourmnt. If you want to accumulate chips - you cannot afford to fold this flop imo. I mean, how can you play 2h5h and then considder folding a powerflop like that? With 2600 already in, you have more than enough equity to push here. Mathwise you are a fav. to make your hand at the river. Folding here is scared, bad play.

Calling is an horrible option: If you get there on the turn chances are you dont get value, if you miss you'll never see the river (unless he's a complete muppet).
 
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0flushgordon DE 0flushgordon Senior member
Posts: 1390 		 

RE: $10 Double Deep, call or fold?

Oct 8, 2008 02:30 AM. Post 9
Normally I would think that I am already nearly drawing dead with at least on player having a better flush draw.

Looking at the stats of those, i change my opinion wink
They are prob just bad players.
 
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