No European country has won outside Europe still, as you say. South American wins in Europe are very rare - only one. But as for when the competition is held outside Europe and South America, there is only ever one winner. Get your money on Brazil, imo. Small sample, but still.
About the odds: I was thinking of the thing that sometimes happens late in knockout tournaments. If one semi final has taken place but the other not, the winner of the first semi often has lower odds against winning the cup than the two who still have to play the semi (I think I'm right in saying) even if they were the outsider of the four who began the semis. If the other semi has two roughly equal top teams in it, backing the team who is already through is probably a mistake because their odds will drop back out once the second semi has taken place. At least this is how I remember it. It's just something I'm sure I remember happening.
I think the same should apply here, and Australia and Holland might well slip out a bit further in the betting once the final thirty-two are known. Perhaps I am wrong though. The field here is obviously a lot bigger, which might change things.
I wasn't actually thinking about Spain and Brazil (I don't think either are actually there yet?) but of the teams who have already qualified, none of whom would be in the top few favourites. I don't think Brazil's odds will go out very far whatever happens , although I wouldn't be surprised to see Spain slipping out a bit as other teams qualify. I'm surprised they are ahead of Brazil at the moment. 4/1 against winning the World Cup seems uninviting to me.
come on, nobody cares about england, the people want to know what's happening with new zealand. well i'll tell you.
after a 0-0 draw in bahrain on the weekend, and a 2-2 draw in saudi arabia on wednesday, bahrain have advanced on away goals. they will now play new zealand on the 10th of october in bahrain and 14th of november in nz for a place at the cup. woot.
in other news, we beat the mighty jordan 3-1, in a game so highly awaited that soccernet has no record of it.
Top four through automatically, fifth gets a play-off against Costa Rica or the Honduras or someone like that. I think for Arg. to miss out altogether, Ecuador probably need to win in Chile (or something more surprising needs to happen). I might well be wrong.
Remaining matches (10/10 and 13/10)
Argentina: Peru (H) Uruguay (A)
Ecuador: Uruguay (H) Chile (A)
Uruguay: Ecuador (A) Argentina (H)
Venezuela: Paraguay (H) Brazil (A)
amh is very busy at the moment, so we mustn't expect any updates to the lists for a little while.
Aus v NZ in the final is still very much on, Wing. Not likely, just on.
Edited by moderator mussorgsky:
(September 11, 2009)