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Edutainment – Pick the Winner 3 of 4

Nov 23, 2007 As promised yesterday, we’re now going to continue talking about Odds vs. Probabilities. All of this can sound a bit tricky but we’ll try to make it as simple as possible for you.

Probabilities are sometimes expressed as odds instead of percentages, but odds are just a different way of saying essentially the same thing. Odds are expressed as a:b which is read aloud as “a-to-b”, where a is the number of outcomes that fit the conditions of an event, and b is the number of outcomes which don’t. To use the flush draw example again, there are 9 outcomes that fit the event and 47 total outcomes, giving 38 outcomes that don’t fit the event. Hence, the odds of making the flush are 9:38, or “nine-to-thirty-eight”.

To make it more understandable and easier to read, ddds are commonly reduced to the lowest common denominator. So instead of 15:6, one would say 5:2 for example. It’s also standard practice to quote odds against the sought events, since in the vast majority of cases, the sought event is the rarer occurrence.

Converting between odds against and percentages is simple albeit cumbersome: given an event with the odds a:b against, the percentage probability is equal to b*100/(a+b). In the flush draw example, it would be 38*100/(9+38), or approximately 81 %. Remember, since this was odds against, this is the probability of not making the flush draw. The probability of actually making it is thus the complement of this: 100 % minus 81 %, i.e. 19 %, just as we saw before.

End of class. See you here same time tomorrow edutainers, and remember to do your homework! (i.e, play some cool Pick the Winner).

Previous articles:
Probabilities and Odds

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