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Edutainment – Pick the Winner 4 of 4

Nov 26, 2007 We have to apologize. "Tomorrow" unfortunately turned into Monday since a weekend came by, but we’ll pick it up from where we last ended now instead. And today we’re going to talk about the excitement of "Drawing Multiple Cards".

So far we have considered scenarios where you are drawing only one card. However, in poker, one is sometimes in a position where several cards are drawn in sequence, such as Texas Hold’em where you might flop a flush draw and hope to make your flush on either the turn or the river.

The way to calculate the probability of an event given multiple attempts is somewhat backwards: you first calculate the probability that the sought event will not happen, and then subtract this from 100 %.

As an example, consider a scenario where you are all-in on the flop with a flush draw. Out of 47 unknown cards, there are nine cards that will give you the flush, leaving 38 cards that will not. You have two chances at making your flush: first on the turn, and if that fails, then again on the river. But another way of seeing it is that you similarly have two chances to miss your flush draw.

What is the probability of not making your flush on the turn? Out of the 47 unseen cards, 38 will not give you a flush. 38 outcomes out of 47 possible in total, or 38/47. And on the river there will be 37 outcomes out of 46 possible.

Now, the joint probability of both of these two events happening is calculated by multiplying them: 38/47 x 37/46, which is approximately 65 %. Thus, the probability of making the flush draw must be 100 % minus 65 %, namely 35%.

Of course, that’s a lot of mental arithmetic to do at the table, with no calculators or computers at hand. Fortunately, there’s a simple trick to eliminate the entire tedious math. However, in order to tell you this trick, we must first introduce the idea of an "out" – more on this within a couple of days. So just hold on, it will be worth it.

Previous articles on "Pick the Winner":
Article 1
Article 2
Article 3

Edutainment – The Pot Odds Trainer 3 of 4

Dec 18, 2007 As mentioned yesterday, using pot odds can be confusing at first glance. This is mostly because there are two different components that is part of the analysis, and they are often expressed differently. The first one is the odds laid by the pot. This... More

The Winter Warmer GTs…

Dec 18, 2007 Keep out the cold this winter with PokerRoom.com’s huge weekly guaranteed tournaments . That’s right. We are adding two massive Guarantee tournaments to our weekly schedule. Wrap up warm every Tuesday at 21:00 CET for the $110,000 Winter... More

WSOP Champions: The Gentleman - Tom McEvoy (1983)

Dec 18, 2007 The year was 1983. Michael Jackson danced with the dead, and Ghandi walked away with 8 Oscars, dominating the event. Likewise Tom McEvoy dominated 107 other competitors, winning his first and only WSOP Main Event title. The prize money this year had... More

Edutainment – The Pot Odds Trainer 2 of 4

Dec 17, 2007 When talking about pot odds, we need to relate it to our former subject in this edutainment article series - probabilities. As has been shown before, any random event has an associated probability of happening. This probability can also be expressed in... More

Edutainment – The Pot Odds Trainer 1 of 4

Dec 14, 2007 The Pot Odds Trainer mini game is similar to the outs counting trainer, albeit a fair bit harder. Just as in the outs counting game, you will be shown a turn scenario in Texas Hold’em. Your objective is to figure out how large a bet you can... More