L-o-o-o-n-g Losing Streaks and No Fold'em Hold'em

da Tom McEvoy. How can you break 'em or take 'em down?
One reader is on a losing streak and the other can't seem to beat those notorious no fold'em hold'em games. How can you break a bad streak or take down a no fold'em game? Jeff has been losing. He E-mailed, "I play the $2-$4, $3-$6, and $6-$12 hold'em games in Southern California. For the past six weeks everything that I play turns sour. If I have high cards the flop comes lowball; if I have low cards, it comes high; or if I have middle cards, I don't make the straight. I've even made top two pair and been beaten at the river by trips. I know that streaks come and go, but this is ridiculous!

"I used to be able to go to the casino and win between $60-$120 every time. Now it's one of the other: I either win very big or lose very big. I have tried changing tables, have asked for new set-ups, and have even changed casinos, all with the same result - I lose! How long do losing streaks usually last on average? How can I get out of this predicament?"

Sorry to say, Jeff, that I know some poker players who are on lifelong losing streaks, mainly because they never have taken the time to learn how to play well. Sometimes when you change a game or a limit, you may not be a winning player at the new game or the new limit. Conquering one game and one limit doesn't mean that you will be an immediate favorite in a new scenario. Some winning players deceive themselves in this regard, when in reality they may only be able to win in a particular game or limit. As you escalate the limits that you play, the level of competition also rises and the games are tougher to beat.

Also sorry to say that if you normally are a solid, winning player, it is not unusual to go for six months or more without making any money at poker. Unfortunately I have had two losing streaks in tournament play that lasted for two years each, during which time I made no money whatsoever. Tournaments are streakier than side games, of course, because the luck factor is higher than it is in ring play. I never thought that it was possible that I would have a losing year in the side games, but even as a winning professional player, I endured a year when a lot of things went wrong and I wound up about $3,000 in the red. (This is when you start questioning yourself.)

If you're playing correctly and don't make any radical adjustments to your usual winning style, eventually things should work out for you. It is OK to change games, limits, or casinos, and I also am a big believer in "manufacturing" a winning streak - that is, get in a game, try to win a hand or two, and then take the rest of the day off as soon as you're a little bit ahead. Now you've broken your losing streak. It's a psychological thing that helps you to get out of your negative frame of mind. Having a positive attitude is very important: If you expect a negative result, you're almost never disappointed. On the other hand, if you play your best at all times and start scoring even small wins, you begin to regain your confidence. Positive builds on positive just as negative can build on negative.

Speaking of losing, Steve E-mailed me about playing in the notorious California no fold'em hold'em games, asking "How is it possible to beat these games consistently with so many players in the pot? For example, I was playing in a $3-$6 hold'em game with eight other players. I was dealt pocket aces two spots in front of the blind and raised to try to limit the field and discourage others from playing drawing hands. Six players called my raise. With seven of us in the pot, the odds of pocket aces winning seems to go down to next to nothing, especially in the no fold-em hold'em games.

"The flop was ragged, as was the turn and river. With no flush, straight or pair on the board, I felt pretty confident. Unfortunately, so did the player with 4-3 offsuit who made two pair at the river! It seems that with so many poor players at this level, it is not possible to consistently beat these games. Should I be playing only drawing hands such as large connectors and big suited cards with so many players in the pot?"

Fortunately, no fold'em hold'em games are indeed beatable. Unfortunately, the frustration level in these games is extremely high for skilled players who patiently wait for premium cards to play because when they finally get dealt a good hand, with six or seven opponents drawing against them, it seems that someone invariably gets there. But that isn't always the case. Two aces is the best hand, period. Even though they are not the favorite to win the pot against seven opponents, I still would rather have aces than any drawing hand. And when they do hold up, you will win much bigger pots than you would have won with fewer callers.

In no fold'em hold'em games, you will have much bigger fluctuations than in normal games, which means that your losses will be bigger ... but so will your wins. You must remain patient and not sink to your opponents' level. You see everybody playing trash hands so you start playing trash, too. When you lower your game to your opponents' level of play, it decreases your chances to win because now you are playing the same way that they are comfortable playing. They like playing 4-3 offsuit for a raise!

In the short run it is true that any two cards can win, but in the long run you will get punished by playing trash. Solid play will win in the end - you should be able to make more money at no fold'em hold'em games that you can make in more traditional games.

My esteemed writing partner, Dana Smith (who plays a lot of low-limit poker), adds that "The value of the raise to limit the field is of little use in no fold'em hold'em games. The primary function of the raise in these games is building the pot, which in turn lures many players with weak hands into a pot that they otherwise may not have played. Mike Caro's concept of seldom raising before the flop in hold'em seems particularly valid in loose games.

"You are correct in assuming that the drawing hands have added value in no fold'em games since they need multiway pots to get proper pot odds. Of course, in California it seems that every pot gives odds on any hand! It is only when you move up to the higher limits that you find the play tightening up, and even then the games are far looser in California than in Las Vegas."

Adjusting your play to no fold'em, jackpot, shorthanded, and other types of limit hold'em games is a topic that T. J. Cloutier and I discuss in great depth in Championship Hold'em (due for publication in December). If you can endure the losing streaks and withstand the onslaught of the maniacs until Christmas, we hope to see you in the winner's circle.